But not necessarily in Second Life. Considering that 2011 is a scant four years away, my feeling is that Gartner analyst Steve Prentice, who said "the majority of active Internet users and major enterprises will find value in participating in this area in the coming years" at their Symposium/ITexpo, is way off the mark. Though there's no doubt whatsoever in my mind that Virtual Worlds will boom, and for many of us become central to our online lives, that figure just seems way optimistic.
As part of Gartner's analysis of virtual worlds, they've created five laws for companies looking to work within the Metaverse:
- Virtual worlds are not games, but neither are they a parallel universe (yet) - Prentice warns that both treating virtual worlds as games, and blindly charging into "another sales channel" are potential dangers.
- Behind every avatar is a real person - Enterprise users must consider their corporate reputations
- Be relevant and add value - "Do not expect to undertake profitable commercial activities inside most virtual worlds in the next three years"
- Understand and contain the downside - Griefing, inappropriate content and suchlike are to be "contained", though Gartner offer no advice as to how
- This is a long haul - It's too early to tell how this will all pan out but Gartner thinks some consolidation into open sourced VW's with transferable assets (clothing, objects etc) is likely and advises businesses to "experiment with virtual worlds, but not plan massive projects, and look for community benefits rather than commerce" and to "Find enthusiasts within your enterprise and support them. Understand the implications for access to open virtual platforms from within the enterprise and the risks involved"
The points Prentice makes about not seeking out or expecting large (or any) financial returns at this point are well made I think. Right now, this is all about community Commerce will come, but it's not ready for primetime just yet.
