Robert Bloomfield's blog

Metaverse Market Index, what it is and what it isn't

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Many Metaversed readers have already read TechCrunch's post about our plans to create a "Metaverse Market Index" (MMI). Here is my view on what we are trying to accomplish...and perhaps more importantly, what we are NOT trying to do.

The primary motivation for this project is laid out in three separate but related posts by Christian Renaud. Two points resonate particularly strongly for me. First, people who are investing in virtual worlds need information on the world's prospects. It doesn't matter whether they are consumers looking for social networking, entrepreneurs looking to create an inworld business, or a corporate giant looking for a way to market their brand or teleconference with employees and clients. Second, the stakes of making the right decision are particularly high because investments in one world are currently not portable to other worlds (though hats off to Multiverse for trying to make this happen on their platform).

The key goal of MMI is to create reliable, meaningful and consistent information about three aspects of virtual worlds: the size and engagement of its user base; the vibrancy of its economy; and the key aspects of its technology. The first two goals should help people who are making decisions to invest in virtual worlds in the absence of inter-operability; the third should help platform developers move toward inter-operability.

Clearly this won't be easy. We will need to maintain independence and have broad representation, which we are doing by being a nonprofit organization with an advisory panel drawn from all quarters of the virtual world community. We will need lots of funding (hint, hint) from companies that don't have virtual worlds on which we are reporting, so that our independence is not compromised. And we will need cooperation from virtual world developers, so that we can provide the public with high-quality information.

We will also need to make sure people understand what we are not trying to do. We are not trying to impose our own definitions of what is and is not a virtual world. Raph Koster's post , along with its comments, make clear why doing so would be a mistake. Our plan is to view the metaverse very broadly--as I say in my own comment to Raph's post, I like the word "metaverse" because no one knows what the %@#! it means, so it is hard for someone to exclude a platform others argue should be included.

Second, we are not trying to impose any technology on existing platforms. Instead, we just want to report on the technologies that platforms are using, so that the developers can make intelligent decisions.

What we are trying to do is create standards for reporting meaningful information. As an accounting professor who works fairly closely with the Financial Accounting Standards Board, this is familiar territory for me. Everyone knows that Second Life doesn't have 9 million residents. Accountants would say that number is not a faithful representation of what people actually care about: how many people use the platform regularly, and how engaged are they when they are using it. (I frequently have it running in the background, in case anything comes up.) Naturally, key numbers will have different meanings in different platforms. Thus, we will need to develop a taxonomy to capture and talk about these differences.

I will be at the Virtual Worlds Conference next week. If you are interested in working with us on this project--or better yet, providing us with funding--please let me know.

Stock Exchanges To Provide Data for Independent Analysis

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I am pleased to announce that I have established data disclosure agreements with Arbitrage Wise of SL Capital Exchange (also covering data from their previous incarnation as AVIX) and Cocky Dagger of International Stock Exchange. (I have discussed the possibility with LukeConnell Vandeverre of World Stock Exchange, but we have yet to come to an agreement. I will announce that agreement should it be forthcoming)

According to the agreement, the exchanges will provide me with comprehensive data on trades, dividends and stock issuances for all listed firms. I will analyze the data, and publish summary results that will allow people to assess aspects of stock behavior that are a staple of real-world analyses, such as:

•How are stock returns associated with economic events in Second Life, including dividend and other company announcements, Linden Lab policies, and currency supply? Many observers have made assertions about how these policies affect the value of Second Life businesses, and this data should allow us to document the validity of these claims.

•What factors determine market liquidity and the cost of capital? Financial theory predicts that firms that provide more transparency should be more liquid, and should also have higher prices. This data should allow listing firms to identify disclosure policies that maximize the value of their businesses.

•How efficient are the markets? According to “Efficient Markets Theory,” stock prices should react so quickly and completely to public information (like Linden Lab announcements), that you can’t predict future returns from past events. However, real life analyses have shown many exceptions to these rules. (For example, firms that do quite well one month tend to do well the next month, and firms that report surprisingly strong earnings one quarter tend to do well over the next two quarters.)

Naturally, investor confidentiality is of the utmost concern to those running the exchanges. Under the terms of the agreement, I will not disclose any information that would compromise the privacy of any investors. (For example, I will not know the identity of individual traders.) Moreover, the published analyses will focus on the stock markets, not the associated banking divisions. Thus, this agreement will not result in public analyses of how the exchanges are investing cash maintained in banking/brokerage accounts.

Getting this data into proper form for analysis will take some time, as will analysis, but I hope to have initial results published in a public forum sometime during early Fall.

I believe that the exchanges’ agreement to allow independent analysis of exchange data sends a strong signal that the exchanges understand the importance of transparency in maintaining investor confidence. I also expect that the publication of data analysis will further increase investor confidence, and attract new investors and new listing companies to the exchanges.

Finally, let me assure SL residents of my intention to be as objective as possible in my analysis. One important element of objectivity is to avoid financial ties that might provide an incentive to shade the analysis, or (almost as bad) that might lead people to think I have done so. To mitigate this concern, I am announcing that do not intend to invest in any of the exchanges, nor will I invest in any for-profit businesses in Second Life, whether or not they are listed on the exchanges.

For the record, I am not currently associated with any existing non-profit organizations in Second Life (like the SLEC, SLBB, SLBA, Metaversed Republic, etc.). Naturally, though, I keep informed by frequently attending meetings of for-profit and not-for-profit organizations in SL, and join the groups these organizations have created.

Should my financial or official ties with organizations in Second Life change, I will announce that promptly on this website.

If Second Life Financial Markets are a Game, Are We Having Fun Yet?

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Not even two weeks after I moderated a panel on regulating Financial Markets in Second Life, The Second Life investment community is buzzing with speculation about fraud at the World Stock Exchange. First, WSE investors encountered locked ATMs (the inworld terminals at which to transact with WSE accounts), accompanied by this cryptic note on http://www.wselive.com/ from LukeConnell Vandeverre, CEO of WSE:

"The World Stock Exchange is closed for important updates. The WSE will be open and trading will resume at 12PM PDT, Tuesday 24th July 2007. Thank you for your patience."

Then, WSE investors saw this entry from Mystik Boucher, CEO of Mystik Designs (MDS) one of the larger and more successful companies listed on WSE:

"A few short days ago, it had come to the attention of LukeConnell that the WSE had been hacked and lost over 3.2mil/L. I come into this story, well, because it was the Chairman of Board @ MDS who has allegedly hacked the WSE. On Saturday I received an e-mail from Patsy Linden stating that my account was placed on Hold due to an Administrative Review."

Those who were at the panel will remember that LukeConnell, like the COO of the competing exchange (Maelstrom Baphomet of AVIX), argued that SL stock exchanges are "a game." This news is undoubtedly causing some to ask "Are we having fun yet?"

Well, I had a chance to interview Mystik and hopefully provide a little more insight and information while we wait for WSE to reopen, and perhaps provide their own statements. Please keep in mind an important caveat--I have not had a chance to get corroboration from anyone, so I am simply representing Mystik's position here. (Anyone who wants to set the record straight, IM Beyers Sellers in SL, or email me at rjb9@cornell.edu).

With that in mind.....Mystik reports that LukeConnell Vandeverre, CEO of WSE, told Mystik that the CFO of MDS, Thurston Hallard, and his alt, had been making bogus deposits, followed by withdrawals. Thurston has previously claimed that Luke had given him rights to modify the money account for WSE, suggesting that this *might* have been a hack from within SL, rather than directly accessing the website through real-life channels. (That may have some important implications for the parties involved, and Linden Lab's involvement). Linden Lab has responded by suspending both Thurston's and Mystik's account (because naturally they had frequent cash transfers), but Mystik has been told that the suspensions should be resolved today, and Mystik is "very optimistic on the outcome."

Mystik responded in several ways to this news. First, she has removed Thurston Hallard from his post as CFO. She has also chosen to delist from WSE, over objections from other Board members (and *not* at the request of LukeConnell or WSE). As she put it, "We're walking from WSE. We're one of the strongest buys there and our name will not be tarnished due to their lack of security implementation."

Delisting is a pretty significant step, given that MDS has a market cap of about L$13 Million, or around $50,000 US. This is a pretty big company, by SL standards, clearing (in profit) about $80K US on an annual basis, with their work on web/SL integration, land builds and related work. Mystik says that she has a shareholder list, and will be buying shares back to keep the major shareholders on board, and she wants to "make sure they are rewarded."

OK, that gets most of the key facts (according to Mystik) on the table regarding the nature of the transaction and its immediate effects. In my next post, I am going to delve into some more speculative and controversial issues...but I know there are a number of investors who are feeling up in the air now, so I am going to post this now.

Second Life Financial Markets Panel a "Smashing Success"

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Last Friday I moderated a panel discussion on financial markets. We quickly hit our limit of 50 avatars on Dr. Dobb's Island's, and convinced them to risk crashing the sim to let in a few more. And a few more.....ultimately, we had 70 people attending, including several members of the RL and SL press. Nick tells me this was by far the best-attended Metaversed geek-meet so far.

Three topics were particularly contentious. First, when I noted the *possibility* that the markets could be "viewed as a game," the audience chat when off the charts, mostly in vehement disagreement. However, the exchange leaders clearly agreed with the view that the exchanges are a game.

From there, the discussion moved right into the prevalence of fraud. The heads of the exchanges (Maelstrom Baphomet representing AVIX, LukeConnell Vendeverre representing WSE) emphasized the relatively low rate of fraud, and their strong attempts to limit it, but from the extensive post-panel audience discusion, many were clearly unconvinced.

Some people seemed to think that the efforts of the Second Life Exchange Commission (SLEC, headed by TraderJohn Susa) were encouraging, but that led to the third point of controversy: whether self-appointed regulators would do more harm then good, by being in the pocket of the exchanges, or annointed friends of the Lindens.

I tried to remain carefully objective during the panel, but for the record, here is my own take on these three issues. First, I don't believe that the exchanges are a game. After all, these exchanges have raised about $1.5 Million (US, not linden), and there is no objective other than whatever the individuals involve are seeking (which I am guessing is money).

Second, I think fraud is a real concern in this markets, and the exchanges themselves could do more to improve investor confidence, such as having better disclosure about trades, and better separation between managers who issue shares and the businesses they control. (More first-life disclosure would be nice too).

Finally, while I understand the *potential* for problems with self-appointed regulators being extortionists or annointed busy-bodies, I think those concerns are far outweighed by the likely benefits of regulation done right. I hope the SLEC will be able to succeed in their task, or if not them, another group.

Were you at the panel? What did you think?

Panel Discussion on Second Life Stock Exchanges

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I am not sure Nick will have time to post on this event, so here goes:

This Friday, I will be moderating a panel discussion in Second Life (as my alter-ego Beyers Sellers). The goal of the panel is to allow the panelists to describe the current state of the markets, and what they would like and expect to see in the future (particularly regarding regulatory and non-regulatory ways to strengthen investor confidence).

Panelists will be:
Maelstrom Baphomet, COO of AVIX (or Investor Allen, CEO of AVIX)
LukeConnell Vandeverre/Sinatra , CEO of WSE
Arbitrage Wise, CEO of SL Capital Exchange (a proposed exchange)
Mystik Boucher, CEO of Mystik Designs, listed on WSE
TraderJohn Susa, Chairman of SL Exchange Commission
OliveEue Sholokhov, CEO, SL Business Bureau
Me, Beyers Sellers, Cornell University Professor (moderator)

Details:
This will be a Metaversed Geek Meet
Co-sponsored by Dr. Dobbs Journal, Information Week and Cornell University
Dr Dobbs Island, Noon SLT, Friday, July 13th.

If you have questions, please feel free to IM me, or send email to rjb9@cornell.edu. Keep in mind that the panel is not the venue to name names of people you believe are untrustworthy, nor to ask why you lost 3000 Lindens in ABC Company on May 12th, etc. Instead, this is a forward-looking discussion about what could be done better in the future, and what progress will require from exchanges, possible regulatory bodies inside and outside Second Life, and whether/should Linden Lab take any active role.

I hope to see you there!

Rob

Hello World

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I just thought I would say hi to metaversed readers.  I am building a community of business researchers and educators who are interested in using virtual worlds (and serious games within those worlds) for serious games.  If you are interested, here is a paper describing the project:Http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=988984You can also see my recent posts at Terra Nova, a blog of academics, lawyers, gamers, and developers. Http://terranova.blogs.com/

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